Are the Ravens legit contenders or will this be 2019 all over again?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

The Baltimore Ravens lead the NFL in rushing, boast one of the league’s premier defenses, and have played well enough that quarterback Lamar Jackson is in the middle of the MVP race.

These trends not only apply to the 2023 Ravens, but we also saw them in 2019 — culminating in the Ravens cruising to the No. 1 seed in the AFC and Jackson earning the second ever unanimous MVP in NFL history. 

But now that we’re long removed from Baltimore’s franchise record 12-game winning streak to close out 2019, that entire season feels like a fever dream. 

Baltimore has rarely been the top dog that gets the opposing team’s best shot every week, let alone the consensus favorite to reach the Super Bowl. Most pundits, betting houses, and fans anticipated a deep playoff run to cap off the Ravens’ historic regular season. 

Instead, the Tennessee Titans waltzed into M&T Bank Stadium and dominated in all three phases of the game en route to a stunning 28-12 victory in the AFC divisional round. 

Although the Ravens hold the top spot in the conference for now, a lot has changed for Baltimore since that disheartening upset. 

So while the bye week rolls on, we’ve got some time to consider whether the 2023 Ravens are poised for redemption as we approach the final stretch of the regular season or if this is a case where the more things change, the more they stay the same.

New year, same issues

The 2019 playoff loss against the Titans wasn’t maddening solely because it was unexpected, but also because of how it happened. The Titans came out and punched them in the mouth, storming ahead 14-0 early in the second quarter.

Baltimore wasn’t used to playing from behind that season and it simply failed to respond to the challenge. The Ravens were shaky and looked out of their element as they committed three uncharacteristic turnovers after finishing just outside of the top five in turnover differential throughout the regular season. 

Plus, Baltimore’s six drops on the day certainly didn’t help matters. 

The potential is there for the same issues to creep up come January as the Ravens have only trailed for around 30 minutes so far in 2023. This is a more battle-tested team than the 2019 roster, but the reality is the Ravens have repeatedly shown the innate ability to be their own worst enemy.

In the past 40 years, the teams that have spent the least time trailing through their first 10 games are the 1984 Miami Dolphins (14:46), the 1998 Denver Broncos (27:07), this year’s Ravens (28:46), the 1990 New York Giants (43:42) and the 2007 New England Patriots (51:03), according to the NFL Media Research Department. 

Every team on that list started 10-0 except Baltimore, which blew leads in all three of its losses this season. The alarming part is this isn’t just a 2023 issue. 

The Ravens have lost seven games in the last two regular seasons with Jackson as the starter. In 5 of those 7 contests, they had a 90% chance to win in the fourth quarter, according to ESPN’s win probability tracker. And they lead the NFL with nine losses over the past three years while holding a lead of at least seven points in the fourth quarter. 

Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. This team simply can’t be trusted to finish games no matter how big of a cushion they give themselves. That doesn’t bode well for the playoffs when just a few mistakes can flip the whole momentum of a game. 

That’s part of the reason why the Ravens revamped their receiving core with the additions of wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. They hoped drops and lack of separation on routes would be issues of the past, but we’ve seen glimpses of those same problems throughout 2023. 

Although Baltimore has shown the ability to present matchup problems for defenses even without tight end Mark Andrews, we can’t dismiss the possibility of them putting up a stinker at the worst possible time after we saw them pile up seven drops in a 17-10 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5. 

Drops haven’t been a big problem since that outing, but they weren’t an issue throughout most of 2019 either so nothing is written in stone. 

The Ravens won’t be trusted as a legitimate championship contender until they prove they can prevent themselves from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and dispel the notion that Baltimore’s receivers can’t be trusted when all the chips are pushed to the middle of the table. 

Baltimore’s lack of poise could result in disaster once the stakes are raised in the playoffs, but it has some new bright spots that could help it make the deep playoff run it so desperately desires. 

What’s different this time?

After three straight years of being among the NFL’s most injury-plagued teams, the 2023 season has mercifully provided good health for Baltimore.

Head coach John Harbaugh deserves credit for revamping the team’s training programs in the 2022 offseason and leaving no stone unturned when it comes to consulting his data and analytics staff to develop the most efficient training methods for reducing injuries.

The Ravens have had their healthiest start to a season since 2019, but at some point injuries were bound to have an impact on the trajectory of this team. Losing Andrews for (potentially) the rest of the season in Baltimore’s 34-20 win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11 was undoubtedly a major blow, but this team is more well-equipped to deal with this loss compared with the rosters over the past few years.

Harbaugh even said so himself, stressing that the team is “more prepared to deal with something like this than we have been [in recent memory].” Losing Andrews now as opposed to later in the year could be a blessing in disguise for Baltimore. 

Jackson has a propensity at times to force the ball to Andrews rather than spread the ball around to different receivers, so this injury will force him to develop chemistry with all of his targets over the final five games of the season. 

Building trust with his receivers could be a huge boon in the playoffs since you never know who will be called on to step up in a big moment. 

We’ve seen speedy running back Keaton Mitchell take advantage of his opportunities over the past few weeks after having limited opportunities in the first half of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see tight end Isaiah Likely or wide receiver Nelson Agholor use their increased roles to establish themselves as Jackson’s new security blanket moving forward.

And it always helps when you have an elite defense to keep every game competitive while adjusting to the loss of your top offensive receiving threat. 

It’s taboo around Baltimore to mention any other defense in the same breath as the 2000 Ravens defense, but this year’s defensive unit has forced its way into the conversation. 

The Ravens have given up just 10 touchdowns through 12 games, which ranks first in the NFL. 

Baltimore is also allowing just 4.2 yards per play so far this year, marking the best average since the vaunted 2008 Steelers defense. 

To make a long story short, this defense is negating offenses from moving the ball whatsoever. And when opposing teams are fortunate enough to get in scoring position, they often have to settle for field goals.

Defense travels in the playoffs. So barring fatigue setting in or a sudden drop-off in execution, the Ravens will be able to stifle any offense they face in January. This suffocating defense makes Baltimore’s recipe for success quite simple.

As long as the Ravens can control the pace of the game with their rushing attack, play lights out defense, and avoid turnovers, they can dominate any team in the NFL. 

It’s unclear whether Baltimore can consistently execute when the bright lights are on, but it has the blueprint to make sure this isn’t a repeat of 2019. 

A few random thoughts

1. The Ravens were able to hang on to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 20-10 in Week 12, but Jackson never looked comfortable throughout the game. He was often scrambling to buy time once his protection broke down, and he was extremely inconsistent with his mechanics for most of the night. It’s a cause for concern that Los Angeles was able to consistently pressure Jackson without star pass rusher Joey Bosa. Keeping Jackson upright will be crucial for the Ravens’ playoff hopes. Remember, all of Jackson’s injuries have resulted from poor protection in the pocket. Baltimore’s offensive line has been inconsistent in pass protection this season, so that must be cleaned up in order to have any chance at a deep playoff run.
2. During Baltimore’s matchup against the Chargers, Harbaugh appeared to have a play sheet and looked to be talking into his headset more than I’ve noticed in other games this season. It’s difficult to say for sure how much of a hand he has in the play calling, but there are a few constants that have overlapped from former offensive coordinator (OC) Greg Roman to new OC Todd Monken. When the run game is humming, the Ravens have a bizarre tendency to go away from it despite that being the core of their offensive identity. Harbaugh’s fourth down decisions have cost Baltimore games throughout his tenure, so I’m unsure how to feel about him having a larger role in play calling duties. 
3. Flowers has an infectious smile and energy that has clearly had a positive impact on Baltimore’s locker room. With that said, he needs to work on his touchdown celebrations. Jackson was not a fan of his “bouquet toss” celebration, and I can’t blame him one bit. If I were him, I’d consult Beckham Jr. for suggestions. Thankfully, he has five more games to bounce back.